As Major League Baseball executives ascend upon Las Vegas for the annual general managers meetings, word around the Aria Resort and Casino is that the New York Mets may have moved into pole position in the race to sign Tarik Skubal.
Senior reporter for MLB.com Mark Feinsand has been talking with executives and agents at the GM meetings, and has identified five MLB teams to watch in the Skubal sweepstakes.
But perhaps no team is in better position to sign the two-time Cy Young Award winner than the Mets, with one American League executive telling Feinsand: “If the Mets want him, he’s going to be a Met.”
The executive argues that there are only so many teams that can join the bidding war for Skubal, and the Mets have the most glaring need among potential suitors, as well as the deep pockets and abundant resources to blow him away with a deal.
Jon Heyman of the California Post reported Tuesday afternoon that the Mets had scheduled a meeting with Skubal some time next week.
But what could get in the way of Skubal trading the West Coast for the East Coast? Feinsand says it would likely be the length of a potential deal.
“The most pressing question related to the Mets’ pursuit of Skubal is how many years David Stearns, the club’s president of baseball operations, will be comfortable giving to a pitcher with a history of arm trouble,” Feinsand writes.
Skubal has been mostly available throughout the prime of his career, but he turns 30 later this month, and has a history of serious elbow injuries that could give teams pause.
He had Tommy John surgery in 2017, prior to making it to the Bigs, and while that’s no longer the death sentence it was previously, it’s something that teams could potentially hold against him. He’s had a few other surgeries, too, including flexor tendon surgery on his throwing arm in 2022 that led him to miss the final 58 games of that season and 83 games the following year.
Dodgers Free Agency Watch: Tarik Skubal
Before he was acquired by the Dodgers, he also underwent a minor arthroscopic procedure to remove loose bodies in his left elbow and missed a little over a month.
Stearns has typically avoided commiting long-term money to pitchers, instead opting for short-term deals. But Skubal is arguably the best arm in the game, and the Mets are desperate for a true Ace to anchor its starting rotation—apologies to Nolan McLean.
That caution that Stearns has shown in the past might take a backseat after the Mets failed to reach the postseason for the second-straight season, despite the second-largest payroll in the sport.
“After missing the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, owner Steve Cohen could look to address the rotation by adding the best available arm — no matter what the cost,” Feinsand writes.
What teams are interested in Tarik Skubal?
In addition to the Mets, Feinsand also identifies the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and the Milwaukee Brewers as potential landing spots for Skubal.
The Yankees have more pressing needs elsewhere and could sign Skubal as a luxury, not a necessity (similar to the Dodgers situation, albeit less complicated).
The Blue Jays have swung big on the top free agents basically every offseason this decade, but have mostly been scorned, aside from the big swing-and-hit with Dylan Cease last winter.
The Brewers were heavily invested in getting Skubal at the trade deadline before the Dodgers swooped in to make a deal, but after winning it all, does that sense of urgency fade?
Read More: Dodgers star says ‘good shot’ Skubal returns to team
And the Dodgers, who committed two Top 100 prospects to bring Skubal from Detroit to Los Angeles, are about as set as a team can be with starting pitchers. The team’s offense and aging roster is its biggest concern this offseason, but letting Skubal walk away after sending Zyhir Hope, River Ryan and Brady Smith to the Tigers, players who could’ve helped kickstart a youth movement, would likely leave a sour taste in the mouths of fans and team officials.
Skubal could also return to a revamped Detroit Tigers team. The San Diego Padres are believed to be sniffing around. And the Chicago Cubs apparently want him worse than anyone but may have already taken themselves out of the race.
Regardless of where he lands, teams can expect to pay the lefty upwards of $45 million per season, with a total contract value exceeding the record-setting deal fellow Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed only a few years ago.
History will be made when Skubal signs his next deal. But will we see him again in Dodger blue? Or is pinstripes the look for 2027? We will likely know in the next few weeks before the league’s collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1.
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