Los Angeles Dodgers free agent Tarik Skubal is considered the crown jewel of the upcoming MLB free agent class. Here is what the Tarik Skubal contract market could look like.
The two-time Cy Young Award winner is still in his prime, looked just as dominant as ever since arriving in Los Angeles near the trade deadline, and is widely expected to become the highest paid pitcher in baseball history.
But just how much could Skubal, 29, get when the market opens in just a few days?
What Scott Boras is reportedly targeting
According to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez, Skubal’s power agent Scott Boras is probably targeting a figure of at least $325 million in total money—or, the total contract value of Skubal’s teammate, Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
At the time, the Yamamoto deal was the biggest total money ever given to a pitcher in MLB history, although not the largest per-year figure.
The circumstances, of course, aren’t an exact 1-to-1 comparison. Yamamoto had never faced any Major League hitters. Skubal, meanwhile, is one of the most decorated and accomplished active players in the league.
Age is also a factor. Yamamoto’s 12-year deal came when the right-handed pitcher was only 25. While Skubal isn’t in his twilight by any means, he’ll be 30 when the next MLB season starts and has a more checkered injury history.
The Yamamoto deal also wasn’t being negotiated around the time the league was staring down a potential work stoppage.
So, is Yoshi’s total contract value the high end of what Skubal can expect, or is it, rather, the starting point?
What MLB insiders are predicting
Earlier this month, unnamed MLB insiders gave ESPN their predictions for Skubal’s upcoming payday, and the numbers ranged from the conservative to the record-breaking.
Seven industry insiders predicted he would get up to $300 million in guaranteed money, with annual salaries ranging from $40 million to $50 million. On the high end, four insiders predicted Skubal would end up shattering the previous record for total guaranteed given to a pitcher, with nine and ten-year deals worth $450 million to $500 million total.
Regardless of the length of the deal, almost all of the industry insiders polled expected Skubal would end up with a deal that paid him between $40 and $50 million per year.
Read More: Dodgers Free Agency Watch: Tarik Skubal
Tarik Skubal contract: What the lockout threat means
In a normal MLB offseason, it might make sense for Boras to go after a shorter deal to allow his client to enter free agency once more and potentially come away with an even larger guaranteed annual figure. But with a potential lockout looming, securing long-term money before the collective bargaining agreement expires would probably be in the best interest of Skubal, as well as most of the upcoming free agent class.
Gonzalez notes that the last time there was a threat of a lockout at the end of the 2021 season, free agency entered a “turbo mode,” with historic deals given out to Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, Javier Baez and Max Scherzer, among others.
But those circumstances were a bit different. If MLB owners are successful in getting a salary cap put in place, would the big-name players, i.e., the Dodgers and the New York Mets, be less willing to spend due to fear of compromising their future flexibility and face potential penalties or restrictions for breaching the cap ceiling?
Or would they be more inclined to go all-in on a big contract for a premier free agent while they still can as a last hurrah?
Agents, according to Gonzalez, appear split on that.
Where could Skubal sign?
I find it highly unlikely that the Dodgers won’t roll out the Brinks truck to bring their prized acquisition back on a long-term deal. Andrew Friedman invested a lot in bringing Skubal to Los Angeles, and he apparently still has the green light from owner Mark Walter to spend big (at least, that’s what Walter says).
The Mets, the San Diego Padres, the Milwaukee Brewers and his old Detroit Tigers team will make calls. There will be no shortage of suitors or bank accounts for his services.
To answer the question above, how much money will Tarik Skubal make in free agency?
A lot. The Tarik Skubal contract will probably come in around $50 million per year.
But how long his deal will last, as well as what team will be signing his paychecks, remains entirely up in the air.
For what it’s worth, Boras said he doesn’t think a salary cap will actually happen. But maybe that’s just wishful thinking.
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