With the Los Angeles Dodgers failing to live up to their own lofty expectations of winning a third consecutive World Series title, the team heads into the offseason in a bit of unfamiliar territory—and the Tarik Skubal free agency decision looms over it all.
The Dodgers essentially went all in, or at least close to it, when they acquired two-time American League Cy Young Award-winning pitcher Tarik Skubal from the Detroit Tigers in a prospect-loaded trade headlined by outfielder Zyhir Hope and pitcher River Ryan.
It was a no-brainer deal for President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman, who was able to shore up a relatively weak spot in his roster construction and assemble arguably the greatest collection of starting pitchers of the 21st century.
Skubal, as promised, delivered. The lefty looked all the part of an elite hurler when he joined the Dodgers in early August, just before the trade deadline.
In 10 regular-season starts with Los Angeles, Skubal went 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA, recording 70 strikeouts, 13 walks and 52 hits allowed across 62 innings, finishing the 2026 season with a combined 12-7 record and 2.72 ERA.
In two postseason starts, Skubal posted a 1-1 record with a 2.45 ERA. Across 11 innings, he struck out 14 batters while allowing seven hits, four walks and three earned runs.
He earned his sole victory against the Atlanta Braves on Oct. 3, allowing one run across six innings, but took the loss against the Milwaukee Brewers on Oct. 11 after surrendering two runs in five.
Ultimately, that would be the last we would see of the two-time MLB All-Star in 2026, after the Dodgers were unceremoniously swept by the Brewers in the NLCS.
Read More: Skubal shines in L.A. postseason debut as Dodgers take Game 1 of NLDS
Now Skubal himself is in his own uncharted territory: MLB free agency.
The 29-year-old has the opportunity to cash in on potentially the largest contract for a starting pitcher in Major League Baseball history.
Skubal was paid $32 million in 2026 after winning a record-setting salary arbitration case against his former team, and now he heads into the offseason as the crown jewel of the free-agent class.
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Tarik Skubal at a glance
Skubal was drafted by the Tigers in the ninth round of the 2018 MLB Draft out of Seattle University. He made his major league debut in August 2020.
Across seven MLB seasons, he’s compiled a 66-44 record with a 3.02 ERA and 1,075 strikeouts in roughly 925 innings pitched.
He won the top prize for pitchers in back-to-back years, taking home the AL Cy Young Award in 2024 and 2025. His 2024 season included a pitching Triple Crown, as he led the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts.
At 29, he’s still theoretically in his prime. But he has suffered from some serious injuries that may give teams pause.
In 2017, prior to becoming a Major Leaguer, he underwent Tommy John surgery. While it’s no longer the death sentence it was previously, it’s still a consideration.
He’s had other surgeries, too.
In 2022, he underwent flexor tendon surgery on his throwing arm and missed the final 58 games of that season, then missed 83 the following year.
This year, prior to joining the Dodgers, he underwent a minor arthroscopic procedure to remove loose bodies in his left elbow and missed a little over a month.
Despite the injury history, there doesn’t seem to be much concern about his health or durability. And when he’s on, there are few players more dominant than “Skoobs.”
Tarik Skubal free agency: Where will he end up?
It’s hard to say for sure what team will employ Tarik Skubal’s services in 2027—if any.
With a potential lockout on the horizon, it’s unclear if there will be any games at all.
But, with many marquee free agents looking to secure the bag before that happens, he will almost certainly be under contract sooner rather than later.
So, where does he go?
Here are some of the most likely outcomes:
Skubal re-signs with the Dodgers
The Dodgers paid big money in the form of top prospects to get him, and failing to three-peat as World Series champions might just make him indispensable if the team wants to get back to the top of that proverbial mountain.
The Dodgers have the money (we think). The Dodgers have the sense of urgency. The Dodgers have a championship window that is wide open only for a few more years.
The Dodgers get deals done—and a return to Chavez Ravine remains the most likely outcome. Even if that means shipping off another pitcher to clear some space (see: Glasnow, Tyler).
But who else could get in the mix?
Skubal signs with another California team
The San Diego Padres are always a threat to spend big in free agency. The team had the ninth-highest payroll in baseball in 2026, and, despite this, has still yet to break through past the NLCS in nearly 30 years.
The team also has new ownership that is eager to spend and eager to get out of the daunting blue shadow of its northern rivals.
Speaking of new owners, Stan Kroenke is set to take over the Los Angeles Angels. The sale, announced Sept. 1, is pending MLB approval and is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027.
Would it not be entirely on-brand for Kroenke to make a major splash as he takes the helm of the beleaguered Anaheim franchise, starved for relevance and desperate to give future Hall of Famer Mike Trout one last hurrah before the game moves past him?
Kroenke likes to win. His NFL and NBA teams have each won titles this decade. And Kroenke is happy to spend—a lot.
SoFi Stadium in Inglewood cost an estimated $5.5 billion to build, making it the most expensive sports venue ever constructed. What’s a few hundred million dollars to tell the rest of baseball you’ve arrived?
If none of the Southern California teams are willing to go hard after Skubal, the Dodgers’ real rivals in the Bay Area just might.
Skubal was born in Hayward, California, about 30 minutes to an hour outside of San Francisco.
The Giants are always a big player in free agency and the fanbase is desperate for a return to October ball after missing the postseason five straight years.
Could a Johnson family overture ensure the remainder of Skubal’s prime is spent in the Bay Area?
- (Skubal grew up a fan of the Oakland A’s, but that’s definitely not happening for myriad reasons.)
Skubal returns to Detroit
Maybe this L.A. experiment was just a rumspringa for Skubal, who could return to the Tigers on the biggest deal in franchise history and compete for the AL crown again.
The Dodgers moving heaven and earth to acquire a disgruntled Tigers pitcher for a postseason run, only to lose that same player back to Detroit weeks after the season ends? Stranger things have happened.
That’s exactly the script that played out two years earlier with Jack Flaherty, who was acquired in a multi-prong deal in 2024 and played a crucial role in the Dodgers winning it all.
Detroit and Flaherty put their differences aside in the name of reconciliation (and money)—could it happen again?
I would say this is unlikely. Flaherty returned to the Tigers when they were a playoff team. And he also wasn’t scorned by a hilariously lowball offer that led to the aforementioned historic arbitration settlement.
Despite being a beloved Detroit sports figure, there might be too much bad blood between Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers at this current juncture.
Read More: Skubal, Misiorowski to duel in Game 1 of NLCS
One of the usual suspects
To say that there is no shortage of teams willing to make a play for the top free agent in his class is an understatement.
The New York Yankees will probably make a call to pitch a dynamic pairing with Cam Schlittler as Gerrit Cole enters his twilight.
The New York Mets, who can’t stop spending and can’t start winning, will probably kick the tires—unless the last two offseasons haven’t scared them off entirely.
The Houston Astros, the Atlanta Braves, the Chicago Cubs, the Philadelphia Phillies and the Toronto Blue Jays are the remaining big spenders.
Only the Mets and Blue Jays failed to make the 2026 postseason, but could the other teams go all in with the Dodgers looking the most beatable they’ve been in the Shohei Ohtani era?
In the end, no one can say for sure what Tarik Skubal has planned. He hasn’t necessarily been willing to discuss it himself.
Currently, Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million contract is the largest total value ever given to a pitcher in Major League Baseball, and that currently feels like a steal.
Skubal will potentially get more. Will any team regret it? If any team can absorb the hit, it’s the Dodgers.
And that reunion still remains the most logical.
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